Recently, I delved into the precarious fate of . The wild Coffea Arabica species of coffee, which is native to Ethiopia, is very sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall, which also leaves it susceptible to disease.1 Since then, I have wondered what is in store for the world’s other favorite drink—tea. We drink tea hot, cold, green, black, white—with boundless flavors. The question is: how long will this precious commodity remain as readily available to us consumers as we have been accustomed.
The History of Tea
iAfter water, tea is the most widely consumed beverage in the world.2 According to a legend, in 2737 B.C., the Chinese Emperor Shen Nung was sitting underneath a Camellia sinensis tree (know commonly known as “tree shrub”) when his servant brought him a cup of boiled water. A few leaves accidentally fell into his cup, creating tea. While containers full of tea have been found in Chinese tombs dating back to 206 B.C., tea did not become the national drink of China until the Tang dynasty of 618-906 A.D.3
Tea became an important part of Japanese culture when Japanese Buddhist monks brought it home after studying in China. In the late 1500s, Portuguese traders traveling back and forth between Europe and Asia began to drink tea. However, it was not until the Dutch took over Portuguese trading routes that tea began to be traded internationally. In 1606, the first shipment of tea from China arrived in Holland. Because of tea’s high price, only Europe’s wealthy could afford to drink it. For a time, there was an extensive illegal tea trade that made it possible for the less wealthy to drink tea as well.4
The main producers of tea in the year 2014 were China, India, Kenya, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia. The tea market is currently composed of four categories: ready-to-drink, traditional, specialty, and foodservice.5
Looking to the Future
The impacts of on coffee have been studied, however, the impacts on tea are only now beginning to be discovered. Unfortunately, early research is showing that tea-growing regions could decline by up to 40-55 percent in the coming decades. Ellie Biggs, a geographer at the University of Southampton, says, “Tea bushes are consistently planted for 60 years so it’s the same bush you’re plucking every year rather than say a crop of wheat. It’s more responsive to the climate rather than the weather.”6
Rick Stepp, an anthropologist at the University of Florida, and Colin Orians, a biologist at Tufts University, have been interviewing tea farmers in the Yunnan region of China. The majority of farmers they have interviewed have noticed that rains have become more unpredictable and temperatures have risen in their lifetimes. Both of these factors, especially rainfall, affect the tea’s quality. Stepp says of these farmers, “In the last 10 to 15 years, the price of these small scale organically produced teas has skyrocketed in China. Just as that is occurring, they’re seeing some of the effects of . Climate is changing the way people produce tea, it’s changing the quality of tea and people are noticing the change in quality.”7
Tea farmers in the Assam region of India are noticing similar effects due to climate change, despite the different ecosystems. Assam tea accounts for 17% of global tea production. Since Assam’s climate is consistently warm, the tea’s upper temperature threshold is now being crossed consistently.8 These higher temperatures have caused certain types of pests to return.9 Additionally, a shift in the timing of the Indian Monsoon, which occurs during the summer, is waterlogging the tea and causing root rot.10 Farmers have also noticed that more rainfall in a shorter period of time is causing topsoil to run off. Furthermore, the dry period has become longer, meaning some farmers have turned to expensive irrigation systems.
Models are also showing that peak rainfall will be shifting in the future from June and July to September, which will alter the tea plant’s growing patterns. Tea farmer Prabhat Bezboruah states, “Earlier, we used to have a good harvest in March and April and then in November and December, now we are getting around 65% of our crop in four consecutive months – July through October. This means we need to invest in new machines that can handle 17% of output in a month.”11 Sri Lanka is in the same position as India, while Kenya is benefiting from raised temperatures because their tea industry has suffered from cold temperatures in the past.12
The end result of all of these climactic changes and increased costs of production is unknown. What we do know is that even as the cost to grow tea rises, small tea growers cannot raise their prices because of competition in the international market.13 Hopefully tea will continue to be a part of our warmer future.
